Red State, Blue State: Demographic Change and Presidential Politics in Virginia

Virginia is one of the most closely watched battleground states in the upcoming presidential election, with the commonwealth’s 13 electoral votes figuring prominently in the strategies of both the Republicans and Democrats. Until Barack Obama’s upset victory in Virginia four years ago, the commonwealth had not voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since 1964. Some political analysts believe demographic trends have finally, and perhaps permanently, tilted Virginia from a “red” state to a “blue” state.

This report briefly reviews Virginia’s political history, analyzes trends within key demographic groups over the past twenty years, and simulates the 2012 presidential election based on patterns seen in the last two presidential contests.

Numbers Count. UVA Weldon Cooper Center for Public Service. University of Virginia