Building Climate Resilience on the Eastern Shore: Key Issues and Coalition-Building Opportunities in Agriculture and Climate for Accomack and Northampton Counties

The purpose of this report is to investigate the impact that sea level rise due to climate change has had on the agricultural sector in the Eastern Shore. It is structured by two sections. The first is a content analysis of literature surrounding agricultural land and the impacts it will face due to climate change as well as planning documents from the two counties on the Eastern Shore. These documents were analyzed for mentions of climate change-related phenomena, such as water quality issues, ground water, saltwater intrusion, and more. There were also examinations of how the two counties referred to impacts and the specific language used to address issues related to climate change. The second section examines spatial data of flooding and ecological impacts in the region to define hazard areas. This was done by looking at the predicted sea level rise in the area as well as looking at parcel data for the counties. Some of the data used is exclusively from Accomack, as comparable data could not be obtained from Northampton. Hazard areas were examined to expose threatening economic and population changes. With the analysis provided by these two sections in concert, a fuller picture of opportunities to build climate resilience for agriculture in the Eastern Shore is revealed.
The conclusion of this report identifies Eastern Shore agricultural land at high risk of facing increased climate hazard, frequently as a result of salinization, in the next few decades. This high-risk area represents a significant source of land value, employment, and cultural identity for the region. Current planning and policy around agricultural land management, however, identifies residential development pressure as a more immediate threat to the long-term viability of the industry. This threat at present is twofold, both replacing prime agricultural land and complicating efforts to mitigate sea level rise by placing more resources, infrastructure, and population within high-risk areas. This dynamic presents an opportunity for alignment between the interests of smallholding agriculture and the goals of a climate equity movement. Our research intends to supply Eastern Shore decision-making with additional information which can potentially guide the formation of this dual strategy. The hazard zones identified demonstrate where exactly aid and resources can best be allocated to minimize damage from sea level rise, and generally to understand where issues of sea level rise are most pressing. Comparative analysis of average value by land type helps to create a better understanding of the impact of losing 30% of agricultural land by 2060. Considering the hazard zones identified, we see that agricultural land in low-lying coastal areas is comparatively among the most valuable agricultural land on the Eastern Shore, confirming development pressure dynamics and underscoring the sheer amount of economic and cultural resources threatened by climate change in the medium-term. Changes are necessary to mitigate the impacts of sea level rise and to ensure that the Eastern Shore’s centuries-old agricultural tradition remains viable. Assessing the relationship between agricultural planning and climate resiliency planning within Eastern Shore public policy suggests that climate language is often minimized, even within hazard mitigation plans. It is downplayed especially within agriculture/aquaculture policy, where residential development pressure is considered the more immediate threat to these industries’ success. While this prioritization does speak to a very real and immediate shift that these industries face, it also may speak to an understanding of agricultural and climate political priorities as non-compatible. This report casts intensifying residential development pressure in high-risk climate hazard areas as a threat to climate equity and suggests the possibility for coalition-building between these stakeholder groups. Participatory mapping, a powerful tool for helping to cultivate grassroots problem-solving, is proposed as a potential engagement strategy which can help communities conceptualize their lived understanding of the area within the context of climate resiliency and hazard mitigation. We hope that the methods and resources within this paper can also contribute to this effort as well.